GREENSBORO, N.C. — The question on everyone's minds: why has it been so warm this November? Well, above-normal temperatures for the month so far are part of an ongoing upper-level pattern. If you remember, October was also warm, approximately 1.6° above normal each day. A lot of this warmth is due to the positioning of the jet stream.
Short Answer: The Jet Stream!
With the jet stream being farther north than normal, cooler air struggles to make it south with frontal systems. The location of the jet stream has an impact on storm tracks as well as formation of frontal boundaries.
When the jet stream is located too far north, normally the southeast will experience above normal temperatures as well as drier conditions (as we've seen the last several weeks) due to the fact that it prevents the storm systems from getting to our area. Additionally, a dry and warm ground also helps temperatures close to the surface get mixed into the atmosphere.
This is also the reasoning behind why October was the fourth driest on record (with data going back to 1903) with only 0.31" of rain recorded!
Is Cooler Weather Coming?
In the short term: yes! A backdoor cold front that was able to pass just to our south will allow cool high pressure to build in Saturday. Cool northerly winds will help bring temperatures back toward normal in the middle 60s Saturday afternoon despite plenty of sunshine.
We're also forecasting another front to approach the area by Sunday, bringing in more clouds by the afternoon and scattered rain chances overnight into Monday morning.
However, this upper-level pattern doesn't appear to leave us in the next few weeks. While many of us are hopeful for more rain and cooler weather, drier & warmer conditions will stick with us.
This pattern will eventually change -- so stick with us for the latest outlook and forecast!
