CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — The National Hurricane Center has raised the odds for possible development in the Western Caribbean Sea to 30% over the next 7 days. The remnants of Gordon are of no concern to interests in Texas. We are focused on the Western Caribbean.
Where this eventually moves will hinge on where upper atmosphere high pressure is set up. Guidance from the European model has flipped since yesterday, putting the high over Florida, rather than over Texas by the middle of next week. Still, a placement over Florida would still send this disturbance northward. We'd be in a more vulnerable spot if it played out as show in the chart below.
It wouldn't surprise me if the NHC expanded the possible development region to include the Bay of Campeche in the coming days. The European Ensemble is indicating some development is possible in both the Western Caribbean and SW Gulf.
The GFS Ensemble is still consistently advertising the Western Caribbean for development.
Until A) something develops and B) we know where the upper level high will be positioned by the middle of next week, determining a probably path will be murky. Stay tuned for updates as clarity slowly emerges in the coming days! No actionable steps to take as of Wednesday night.
Holt out
---------------------------------------------------------------
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak of the climatological peak of the season happening on September 10.
Here are the names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Names are given to tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes).
On May 23, NOAA released their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They're predicting an above-average year, with 17-25 named storms. This is the highest pre-season forecast they've ever issued.
The high number of storms forecast is due to near-record sea surface temperatures and the return of La Nina, both of which favor tropical cyclone development. We talk more about those in our Hurricane Special, which you can watch here!
Remember to not "anchor" to the first forecast you see - forecasts change. Also, rely on a credible source for your tropical information and forecasts.
