GREENSBORO, NC -- That fall chill is arriving right on schedule, but what will winter bring? NOAA released it's winter outlook on Thursday, and it says the Carolinas should expect more wet weather than usual. How much snow? That's a tougher question.
Overall, a mild winter is expected across the United States according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. However, here in the Southeast and the Carolinas, it's likely that our temperatures will hover near average.
One of the biggest factors in this year's winter forecast, is the development of El Nino conditions in the Pacific. According to NOAA, El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing. “We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”
El Nino winters typically bring more storms than usual to the Southeast and the Carolinas, due to a more active jet stream in our part of the country. This can often mean more snow than usual, but not always.
"You really need the cold air and the storms to sync up," says WFMY Chief Meteorologist Tim Buckley. "If you don't have both, you don't get the big snows."
Our last El Nino winter in 2015-16 featured more snow than average here in the Carolinas. However, the one before that in 2009-10 has far less. It all depends on the week-to-week setup of those colder temperatures.
The WFMY News 2 Weather Team will release their winter outlook coming up in November.
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