GREENSBORO, N.C. — Social media has paved the way for wishful 'weather experts' to make unsubstantiated claims about the forecast. Early last week, Triad viewers started speculating about snow late this week -- more than 10 days out.
Why? Because they noticed a snow icon on their iPhone weather apps. Now, two days before said snow event, that icon has disappeared.
VERIFY QUESTION
That begs the question -- are long-range forecasts as accurate as short-range ones? As you probably could guess, the answer is no, especially when forecasting specific weather events like snow.
VERIFY SOURCE
- Meteorologist Terran Kirksey
VERIFY PROCESS
Long-range weather forecasts are forecasts that go out more than 7 to 10 days, sometimes even farther.
"The big problem with long-range models is that, as you go out in time, the potential for forecast errors increases. So, in general, short-term modeling of the atmosphere is going to have less error than longer ranges," Kirksey explained.
Kirksey acknowledged long-range forecasts are helpful at looking at large-scale patterns, like whether the Triad will have a warming trend or cold snap.
"However, they shouldn't be relied on for specifics such as exact high/low or whether we'll see rain or snow. More often than not, the timing, location and strength of systems forecast 10+ days out changes a lot, as the actual day arrives."
VERIFY CONCLUSION
Long-range forecasts are not as accurate as short-range forecasts. Trust your WFMY News 2 meteorologists, not social media babble from non-certified sources.
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