NORTH CAROLINA, USA — A new poll from Elon University shows that Hurricane Helene has influenced more voters to go to the polls in North Carolina.
The poll also shows that people have different views about how well government agencies are responding to the hurricane's damage, and these opinions differ widely between political parties.
Presidential Race
About 59% of registered voters in the state reported that they, their families, or close friends have felt the impact of Hurricane Helene, with 21% saying they were significantly affected. The hurricane has also influenced voting intentions, with 20% of respondents indicating they are now more likely to vote, while only 2% are less inclined to participate.
The poll reveals a tight presidential race in North Carolina, with 46% of registered voters supporting former President Donald Trump and 46% backing Vice President Kamala Harris. Around 9% of voters are either undecided or leaning toward a different candidate, even as the election draws near.
These numbers are nearly identical to Elon Poll’s findings in September. Among registered voters likely to vote, Harris and Trump are still neck-and-neck, each receiving 47% support.
Seven important "swing states" will play a huge role in the 2024 presidential election, holding 93 total electoral votes that could tip the balance.
For Trump to win, he would need at least 51 of these electoral votes, while Harris would need 44 to reach the necessary 270 votes to win the presidency.
North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes hold significant weight in this tight race and could be the deciding factor. Both parties have had strong early voter turnout, making the outcome likely to hinge on the small group of undecided voters—around 4%. This emphasizes North Carolina’s role as a critical battleground state in the election.
Governor's Race
In the North Carolina governor's race, Josh Stein has expanded his lead over Mark Robinson to 21 points, up from a 14-point advantage in the September Elon Poll before the scathing CNN report about Robinson's online history. Almost half of voters—49%—think Stein would be better at leading North Carolina's recovery from Hurricane Helene, while just 27% feel the same about Robinson.
Western North Carolina is still recovering from the flooding, mudslides, and significant infrastructure damage caused by Hurricane Helene. The Elon University Poll examined how residents feel about the response from government agencies in the hurricane's aftermath.
The survey revealed significant partisan divides: 68% of Democrats believe federal and state agencies are doing a "very good" or "good" job, while only 24% of Republicans feel the same. In contrast, 57% of Republicans think these agencies are performing a "very poor" or "poor" job, compared to just 12% of Democrats.
Election Issues and Concerns
The Elon University Poll has been tracking voter opinions on key issues this election season, revealing that the economy remains a significant concern. An August survey indicated that many voters rated both the national and North Carolina economies poorly, with nearly half reporting a decline in their financial situations since President Joe Biden took office.
The poll revealed that North Carolinians are still worried about the integrity of the election process.
If Harris is declared the winner, 49% of respondents said they are "not at all" confident that Trump would accept the results, while another 21% feel "only a little confident." On the flip side, if Trump were to win, 65% of voters expressed that they were "very" or "somewhat" confident Harris would accept the outcome, whereas 36% said they were "not at all" or "only a little" confident she would do so.
