WATAUGA COUNTY, N.C. — In a dead-heat presidential election, North Carolina has taken center stage as one of the most coveted battleground states. However, Helene devastated the state's mountain regions—including some polling sites.
"Those 25 counties provide 17% of the statewide votes typically, so this is a pretty significant slice of the North Carolina electorate," said Michael Bitzer, a political science professor with Catawba College.
The 25 counties he's referring to, along with three tribal regions, are within FEMA's designated disaster area. Thirteen of those counties received additional emergency measures from the state Board of Elections, including allowing affected voters to request and receive absentee ballots in person at their county elections office up until the day before the election.
Despite concerns that Helene would cause lower voter turnout, North Carolina had a record weekend of early voting. However, Bitzer says it's not helpful to compare this year's early turnout to 2020's election.
"It's kind of like comparing a grape to a watermelon," Dr. Bitzer said. He had another suggestion instead.
"I would almost look at the percentage of registered voters who have cast ballots in those counties," he said.
So WCNC Charlotte did just that and broke down the data from the North Carolina Board of Elections, taking into account the latest early voting numbers and the voter registration statistics by county.
Of the 13 counties affected, eight of them had a lower voter turnout average than the statewide turnout of nearly 18% as of Tuesday. Five of them had higher percentages.
"Now you've got the blue dots of Asheville and of Boone, but most of these are much more rural counties. They're much more white, and they tend to be much more older in terms of their registered voters," Bitzer noted, "so this is kind of a core Republican area of the state."
Regardless, Bitzer emphasized it is still too early to tell what Helene's lasting impact will be on the 2024 election.
"We cannot make any decisions or speculate even based on just five days' worth of votes that have come in early," he said. "The results are all over the place. In terms of the different types of voting methods, when you combine all of those vote methods into one, you get typically a very close, competitive North Carolina."
Contact Julie Kay at juliekay@wcnc.com and follow her on Facebook, X and Instagram.