WASHINGTON, D.C., USA — A term you've probably heard a lot in the leadup to Election Day is "swing state" or "battleground state," but what does this exactly mean?
At its simplest, swing states are states in a presidential election that either candidate could win. During election season, both Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris have spent countless hours campaigning in these states and trying to sway undecided voters to their sides.
We know North Carolina is a swing state. The most recent poll by Elon University showed that both Harris and Trump received 46% of the support from the state's registered voters. What will likely decide who wins North Carolina is that 8% that remain undecided or prefer another candidate.
But outside of North Carolina, what are the other swing states? In the 2024 election, they are Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.
What do these states have in common? All six and their electoral votes went to Joe Biden in 2020. They were crucial in handing the current president a 306-232 win over Trump. But in 2016, all but Nevada went Trump’s way.
Below is a breakdown of each swing state in the 2024 election and what current polls show about who might win the race.
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Pennsylvania
Number of electoral votes: 19
Past winners:
2020 — Biden (3,459,923 votes, 50.0%)
2016 — Trump (2,970,733 votes, 48.6%)
Current polls: FiveThirtyEight has Trump with a 0.3% lead (48.0%-47.2%) over Harris.
Deciding factor: Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 in part because he performed better than Hillary Clinton in cities and suburbs like Philadelphia and Pennsylvania. Trump, meanwhile, performed well in rural areas and smaller cities, a demographic that helped him become the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since 1988 when he did so in 2016. If Trump performs better than expected in cities, or Harris performs better than expected in smaller communities, it could be what decides the election.
Georgia
Number of electoral votes: 16
Past winners:
2020 — Biden (2,473,633 votes, 49.5%)
2016 — Trump (2,089,104 votes, 51.0%)
Current polls: FiveThirtyEight has Trump with a 1.5% lead (48.6%-47.2%) over Harris.
Deciding factor: The key to Biden flipping Georgia in 2020 — the first time a Democrat won there since 1992 — was an outpouring of support from the suburbs surrounding Atlanta, the state’s largest city. According to data, Democrats gained more than 300,000 voters in Georgia suburbs from 2012 to 2020. Whichever candidate wins the 2024 race in Georgia will likely come down to how they perform in the counties surrounding Atlanta — namely Bartow, Carroll, Clayton and Muscogee Counties.
Michigan
Number of electoral votes: 15
Past winners:
2020 — Biden (2,804,040 votes, 50.6%)
2016 — Trump (2,279,543 votes, 47.6%)
Current polls: FiveThirtyEight has Harris with a 0.7% lead (47.9%-47.2%) over Trump.
Deciding factor: Michigan was the swing state Joe Biden won by the widest margin (2.8 points) in 2020 as Trump lost a step everywhere except the state’s most rural counties. Poll data shows Biden gained 73,000 votes in Detroit and Grand Rapids compared to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance. For Trump to turn things around and challenge for Michigan’s 15 electoral votes, he will have to perform better in these urban areas, as well as the smaller cities in the state like Flint, Kalamazoo and areas of the Upper Peninsula.
Arizona
Number of electoral votes: 11
Past winners:
2020 — Biden (1,672,143 votes, 49.4%)
2016 — Trump (1,252,401 votes, 49.0%)
Current polls: FiveThirtyEight has Trump with a 1.8% lead (48.7%-46.6%) over Trump.
Deciding factor: Biden was only the second Democrat to win Arizona since World War II when he did so in 2020 by just 10,000 votes. That was driven in large part by his performance in Maricopa County, which houses Phoenix — the largest city in the state. Nearly 60% of Arizona’s population lives in Maricopa County. The race here will likely come down to whether Harris can grow her support in these areas or if Trump can make up the ground he lost from 2016.
Wisconsin
Number of electoral votes: 10
Past winners:
2020 — Biden (1,630,866 votes, 49.4%)
2016 — Trump (1,405,284, 47.8%)
Current polls: FiveThirtyEight has Harris with a 0.1% lead (47.9%-47.8%) over Trump
Deciding factor: Both the 2020 election and the 2016 election in Wisconsin came down to a margin of less than 25,000 votes. The 2024 race is also expected to be hotly contested. Trump won in 2016 because he outperformed Hillary Clinton in the state’s rural areas by an incredibly large margin. Biden gained the state back in 2020 by putting up better numbers in Milwaukee, Green Bay and Madison. Trump could win if he can gain a little ground in the cities and continue to dominate the rural areas. Harris could lock up the 10 electoral votes by receiving even greater support from the urban areas and performing better than expected among rural white voters.
Nevada
Number of electoral votes: 6
Past winners:
2020 — Biden (703,486 votes, 50.1%)
2016 — Clinton (539,260, 47.9%)
Current polls: FiveThirtyEight has Trump with a 0.2% lead (47.6%-47.4%) over Harris.
Deciding factor: Nevada is the only one of these swing states that has consistently leaned one way in recent history. Democrats won the race there by more than 10 points in 2008, and they have held the state through the past three elections despite Trump gaining ground in the rural communities. What will likely decide the 2024 race is how both candidates perform in Clark County, which holds Las Vegas. Whoever performs better than expected in this area will likely win the six electoral votes up for grabs.