Gasoline prices could tick higher heading into the Labor Day weekend, but motorists are expected to get a reprieve this fall.
The coming relief would be welcomed by travelers and commuters, who endured the most expensive summer at the pump since 2014, according to AAA.
As the final busy travel weekend of the summer approaches, Americans are paying about $2.84 a gallon, 43 cents more than a year ago. That amounts to $6.45 extra per 15-gallon tank.
But barring a disruptive hurricane or international incident that could push up energy prices, drivers are likely to pay less at the pump this fall.
AAA is forecasting that prices this autumn could average $2.70, down from a 2018 high of $2.97 around Memorial Day.
"Any increases we see through the holiday weekend will definitely come down following Labor Day," said Jeanette Casselano, a spokeswoman for AAA.
Lower prices
Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst for GasBuddy, an app that provides fuel station prices and location information, predicted prices would fall anywhere from 10 to 25 cents a gallon by Thanksgiving.
Prices averaged $2.88 for the summer through Wednesday, according to AAA. That's the highest since they averaged $3.57 in summer 2014. Higher oil prices primarily drove the increased fuel prices this year.
But Americans haven't been scared off the road. In fact, gasoline demand remains high.
"A lot of people out there have been taking road trips because gas prices in most areas of the country haven’t hit that magical $3 mark that would start to disincentivize people from taking some of those trips," DeHaan said.
Even so, 10 states were averaging more than $3 a gallon as of Thursday, according to AAA. California had the most expensive gas in the continental U.S. at $3.60. Alabama was the cheapest at $2.53.
Lower prices are normal in the fall, when stations switch to a cheaper winter blend of gasoline that can evaporate at low temperatures to enable proper engine performance.
Another factor driving prices lower this time of year: Many motorists stop hitting the road, so overall demand drops.
In general, national gas prices have been relatively stable this summer, fluctuating by only about 13 cents a gallon, according to GasBuddy.
One key reason is that prices for U.S. oil have largely stayed within a range of $65 to $75 a barrel, and the refineries that process the crude into gasoline have been able to keep pace with demand.
What could spike prices again?
But there's risk on the horizon. The Trump administration is expected to impose a new round of sanctions on Iran with a focus on energy.
If that significantly disrupts the flow of oil in the Middle East, analysts warn that oil prices could spike and lead to an increase in gasoline costs for Americans.
The other big risk: Mother Nature.
"The most immediate threat to gas prices would be a hurricane," Casselano said.
Unlike 2017, when Hurricane Harvey temporarily ravaged gasoline refineries along the Gulf Coast, there has been no major weather disruption to output so far this year.
