GREENSBORO, N.C. — Every day there's more bad news about our economy. Consumer spending in the United States went down 7.5 percent. The US economy shrank 4.8 percent last quarter.
"This is the saddest day for the global economy we have ever seen," experts at High Frequency Economics said.
Despite all of that, we are not in a recession ... YET. A recession is six months in a row of economic downturns. Economists look at several factors to declare a recession including the Gross Domestic Product and unemployment claims.
Those factors tanked in March and April, but they have to continue the negative trends through August to be considered a recession. Something the White House says will happen.
"GDP growth in the second quarter is going to be negative - big number," Senior White House Economics Advisor Kevin Hassett said. "Wall Street estimates are at negative 20, negative 30 percent at an annual rate. That's because we've done something that's really unprecedented. We've basically stopped everything."
In fact, Bloomberg analysts predict a 100 percent chance of a recession within 12 months.
"The novel coronavirus has spurred what will likely be the worst recession in generations," they wrote.
There have been 13 recessions in the past century. The last one, The Great Recession, started after the housing bubble popped in 2007. During that time the GDP went down 4.3 percent and unemployment peaked around 10 percent. We have already passed both of those markers since coronavirus concerns started.
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