FORSYTH COUNTY, N.C. — Early Monday morning a 2.3 magnitude earthquake shook Forsyth County.
It's one of two recent earthquakes to hit the Triad this year. Last month, there was an earthquake in Guilford County.
In 2019, there's been six in North Carolina.
They've been minor, but it's got people asking questions.
Kevin Stewart asked, "Could a larger one be in the making?"
Here's what we found after checking with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) when it comes to foreshocks.
Worldwide the probability that an earthquake will be followed within 3 days by a large earthquake nearby is somewhere just over 6%.
That's pretty low. This means that there is about a 94% chance that any earthquake will not be a foreshock.
The issue is, the USGS cannot tell whether an earthquake is a foreshock until something larger happens after it. So only in retrospect.
When it comes to predicting earthquakes, all bets are off.
In its 140 years, the survey hasn't been able to pinpoint exactly when a major earthquake will happen.
"There's really no way to know. The chance of another earthquake happening in North Carolina tomorrow are the same chances as a 100 years from now basically," Jonathan Tytell, USGS Geophysicist said.
The Survey says no scientist or agency has ever predicted a major earthquake.
Here's why a prediction includes three things: the date and time, the location, and the magnitude.
So far, no one's been able to do all three.
But here's what scientists can do. They can determine probability.
This means they can calculate the chance a certain magnitude earthquake will hit during a several-year window. However, just like foreshocks, the probability technology only works following a major event, which we haven't had in North Carolina recently.