GREENSBORO, N.C. — This week alone there have been 41 polls on who's winning: President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden. Almost all of those found different results. So how do you know which ones to trust?
A group of Political scientists actually dug into this same question in the Journal of Elections. Here's what they found: The most accurate poll of 2016 was the McClatchy/Marist poll. This time around they are placing Biden up by 11 percent. But they also found 12 percent of voters saying they might change their mind. So according to this most accurate poll, it's still anybody's ball game. That's the big national picture.
But we all know in the presidential election it really comes down to a smaller group of a few swing states. Researchers found CBS News was among the best polling in those battleground states. The CBS team built this interactive battleground tracker for you online. They are currently predicting Biden will win the electoral college if the election was held today. They get that by looking into each state.
Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina are still a toss-up at the moment. As a matter of fact, in North Carolina Biden is only up by 5 points. That's within the margin of error, so they can't predict who will win here yet.
Researchers say those are the best polls, but you should know: several political scientists add that the polls don't become a really useful predictor of the election outcome until September. So we'll have to check back.
We're making that really easy for you to do. Ben Briscoe will be posting these new polls on his Facebook page until the election. Just like WatchDogBen on Facebook to make sure you don't miss out.
