GREENSBORO, N.C. — As COVID-19 trends continue to decline across North Carolina, data scientists are still keeping a close eye on information to best prepare for the future.
Cone Health pushed its hospitalization projections back again, stating it will likely not exceed capacity in the next 120 days.
Cone Health Data Scientist Michael DeWitt helps analyze information that goes into the projections.
"The discharges have gone up tremendously. So people are leaving, and as you mentioned, the case rate is decreasing," said DeWitt, "and as the cases fall the hospitalizations fall with it."
DeWitt said companies like Google and Facebook are doing surveys and providing information to help data scientists understand why information is going in a certain direction.
"A consistent number of people reporting that they're wearing masks and the mobility appears that they're traveling less. Now, we don’t know the impact of Super Bowl Sunday yet," said DeWitt.
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While hospitalizations and cases on a state level are showing progress day-by-day, DeWitt said he's cautiously optimistic, as they shift more focus to COVID-19 variants.
"As with all things, the wild card that was less of a threat the first time we talked was this B117 variant and doing some additional projections on that," said DeWitt, "Cases will likely fall over the next four weeks, but that would be the case whether the variant was circulating or not."
DeWitt said they're keeping a close eye on the end of March, and whether cases will start increasing at that point.
DeWitt explained they're keeping an eye on the growth rate that other counties have seen for the new variant, and how long it took for the first case of the variant to pop up in North Carolina.
"That’s when we would expect this new variant to reach about 50 percent of the virus circulation and that’s when we would start to feel this increase in transmissibility if we had the same experience as these other countries," said DeWitt.
DeWitt said while declining data, like the number of people in the hospital and cases confirmed each day is a good thing, other threats are still a concern.
"We have to keep our foot on the gas for wearing masks social distancing but we also need to be mindful of these external threats. Variants, immune escape, and doing a bit of forecasting simulation just to make sure we're prepared for what comes and underline that doing the interventions, the same exact interventions, the 3 W's will help us regardless of what comes our way," said DeWitt.
DeWitt said if you're asked to do a survey from a reputable company like Google or Facebook, it will help them collect information on how to prepare.
"These surveys are not malicious in any way. They are for the public good, they help to inform local policy. They help to prepare and know whats going on and know if the messaging is effective and if people need additional communication," he said, "Doing these surveys helps us understand what we need to do better to serve our community."
DeWitt's biggest concern is complacency based on small signs of progress.
"My biggest concern is given the availability of the vaccine, it's giving people hope. Given the declining case rates, I worry that there will be a push to be more loose and not practice the 3 W's, which could turn this pandemic back on," said DeWitt, "So I worry as things warm up and more time is spent dining with friends and wanting to go out and eat and drink together and celebrate the great news of the decrease in cases and the vaccine then there could be more communication of disease, that it could keep these case rates high or level off."