CONCORD, N.C. — There’s a good chance much of Saturday night’s NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race could turn into a battle for 12th place.
No one has a good feel for how the exhibition race will play out under its unique new format, and the lack of practice due to a Friday rainout left teams and drivers with no information on how a new tire combination will react.
The bottom line: The strategy it will take to win the $1 million prize is anyone’s guess.
“I just don’t know how this thing is going to play out,” Carl Edwards said Friday.
But ask drivers what their gut says, and the race for 12th is the leading theory. Why? Well, it’s a bit complicated.
There will be two 50-lap segments to start the All-Star Race, and teams must make a four-tire pit stop prior to the 15-laps-to-go mark in Segment No. 2.
That rule is important for this reason: Prior to the final segment -- a 13-lap shootout -- a random amount of leaders (either nine, 10 or 11) will be forced to pit for four tires. They will restart behind cars who have older tires (at least 15 laps, thanks to the Segment 2 pit stop rule) and have a short time to race their way to the front.
Here’s the wrinkle: Drivers aren’t sure 13 laps is enough time to pass potentially 11 cars, even those on older tires. And if the tires don’t wear enough, the driver who is 12th — and thus the potential person who inherits the race lead — might be able to hold off the field for 13 laps and win the race.
That’s why drivers are wondering if it would be better to be 12th than first.
“I think everybody is going to race for 12th in the second segment and that’s going to be very interesting,” Matt Kenseth said Friday. “I might be 100% wrong on that, but that’s what it feels like today. And especially after watching the last few races, it’s still really important to be out front and I don’t know that (13) laps after a 10-minute break to cool down on your tires is enough to be a huge deficit to four new ones.”
That means the dreaded “clean air” — also known as track position — could still be the deciding factor. Yes, NASCAR is making further adjustments to the lower downforce rules package that will go into effect for Saturday night’s race. And yes, there’s a chance the tire could wear out enough to make a difference.
But Dale Earnhardt Jr. noted tires haven’t played a major factor at Charlotte Motor Speedway recently, and there’s not much evidence to believe it will change now.
“This track has not changed or aged,” Earnhardt told USA TODAY Sports on Friday. “Running the race late in the evening just maximizes the grip. We fly around here. That really reduces the opportunity to pass. I’m not sure the tire and the downforce reduction is going to make a big difference, but I’m hoping for the best.”
Earnhardt is among those who believe if a driver is fifth to eighth place as the final segment approaches, the best strategy might be to drop back to 12th place.
The problem is everyone in that range might be thinking the same.
“Lot of guys might be pulling some shenanigans,” Earnhardt said.
Kevin Harvick smiled when asked about the strategy and said it was “hard for me to wrap my arms around racing for 12th.”
Preferably, Harvick said, he’d rather start on the outside of the front row of cars with new tires and try to race his way up through the field than attempt to fend off a bunch of All-Stars while on older tires.
But he acknowledged the winning strategy will likely be “kind of a guess.”
And Carl Edwards threw out another theory: What if it’s actually not a bad thing to be fifth to eighth place before the final segment? Edwards predicted there could be “complete chaos that’s going to ensue when they drop the green flag” in the final segment, and being further back from the initial rush might turn out OK.
“You might be better off being in the back with fresher tires, because I believe some people are going to be wrecking,” he said.
Then there was rookie Ryan Blaney, who said the most desirable position might be the race lead. Blaney hasn’t qualified for the All-Star Race yet, but has the chance to race his way in through the Sprint Showdown and was already looking ahead to potential strategy.
“It sounds pretty tough coming from 11th all the way to the lead in 13 laps, but it’s been done before for sure — especially with people on different strategies,” he said. “So it’s doable, and that’s kind of where my gut is telling me to want to be at.”
Contributing: Mike Hembree
